Non ferrous metal market price may fluctuate downward

According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Economic Daily China Economic Trend Research Institute, and China Economic Prosperity Monitoring Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, in January, the China Economic and Trade Commission's non-ferrous metals industry prosperity index was 23.8, a decrease of 1.1 points from the previous month; The leading index of the China Economic and Trade Corporation's non-ferrous metal industry was 65.4, a decrease of 1 point compared to the previous month; The consensus index was 60.4, a decrease of 1.5 points from the previous month. Preliminary judgment shows that the industrial prosperity index continues to decline, but still operates within the "normal" range.  
The industry prosperity index continues to be in the "normal" range
Among the 12 indicators that constitute the prosperity index of the non-ferrous metal industry, there are 10 indicators located in the "normal" range, including LMEX index, M2, automobile production, household appliance production, non-ferrous metal imports, ten types of non-ferrous metal production, power generation, main business income, total profit, and non-ferrous metal exports; There are two indicators in the "cold" range, including the sales area of commercial housing and the amount of non-ferrous metal fixed assets investment.
The leading composite index slightly declined
In January, the leading index of the non-ferrous metal industry fell by 1 point compared to the previous month. Preliminary judgment shows that the prosperity of the non-ferrous metal industry is expected to show a stable or slightly fluctuating trend in the near future.
Among the seven indicators that constitute the leading index of the non-ferrous metal industry, after seasonal adjustment, the year-on-year values of the four indicators in January showed a slight decrease compared to the same ratio in November 2017, namely LMEX, M2, household appliances, and non-ferrous metal product imports, with decreases of 3.6%, 0.3%, 1%, and 0.8%, respectively.
The non-ferrous metal industry is still expected to operate relatively smoothly
From the international environment, the world economy continued to maintain a moderate growth momentum in January. The US economy has been stimulated by tax reform policies to increase investment by companies, and consumers are optimistic about the economic outlook. The European economy has fully entered a period of recovery, and although prices are still being suppressed, the unemployment rate continues to decline, with optimistic growth prospects. Benefiting from net export growth, increased commercial investment, and rising domestic demand, the Japanese economy has maintained expansion for seven consecutive quarters.
From a domestic perspective, in the new year, the overall Chinese economy is stable and improving, with continuous release of economic vitality, momentum, and potential, and significant enhancement of stability, coordination, and sustainability. With the further optimization of the economic structure, residents' income will gradually increase, the economic growth target will continue to transition from "speed oriented" to "quality oriented", and the industrial structure will gradually shift from industrial to service oriented. Nevertheless, some issues should also be noted, such as the high costs and constraints faced by the development of the real economy, the long way to resolve excess production capacity, the need for a sound policy system to support innovation, the high debt in the field of people's livelihood, and the prominent risks in financial and other fields.
From the perspective of the non-ferrous metal industry, China's economy has shifted from a stage of rapid growth to a stage of high-quality development. At present, the production and consumption base of non-ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum in China is already quite large. Among them, the production of refined copper is almost 1.7 times that of Chile, the United States, and Japan combined; The consumption is 2.6 times the total consumption of the United States, Germany, and Japan. The production of raw aluminum is 2.3 times that of Russia, Canada, the United Arab Emirates, India, Australia, and Norway combined; The consumption is 2.7 times the total consumption of the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and India. In this context, even if the domestic production and consumption of copper and aluminum increase by 1%, the absolute amount is still quite large. For example, the consumption of refined copper increased by 1%, which is over 100000 tons, equivalent to half of France's annual consumption; The consumption of primary aluminum has increased by 1%, which is over 300000 tons, equivalent to one year's consumption in the UK. Therefore, looking ahead to 2018, the growth rate of production and consumption of commonly used non-ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum in China may further decline. But even so, it remains the main force driving the production and consumption of non-ferrous metals in the world. The production and consumption of commonly used non-ferrous metals such as lead and zinc in China have entered a platform period, and there is very limited room for further growth.
It is expected that in 2018, the prices of domestic and foreign non-ferrous metal markets may fluctuate downward, but the prices of some non-ferrous metals, especially those important supporting materials needed for the development of strategic emerging industries, such as cobalt, lithium and other rare metals, will remain firm. Due to the absence of factors that have led to a significant decline in non-ferrous metal prices, the economic benefits of the industry will be further improved, and profit growth will significantly decrease compared to 2017.